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3rd Plenum of the XVIIIth Central Committee

by | 12 November 2013 | No Comment | Last modified: 12 Nov 5:40 am



Minxin Pei: What’s the real test to Xi Jinping and the Communist Party at the Third Plenum? (South China Morning Post)

There is something odd and disturbing about the conventional wisdom surrounding the upcoming Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). As the November 9-12 conclave draws near, the international community’s attention seems to be focused mainly on technocratic policy changes deemed essential to restructuring China’s state-dominated economy and reenergising growth.
Will the government liberalise interest rates or loosen capital controls? How will the fiscal system be revamped? Will land reform be part of the package?
The list of such questions goes on. Outside China, the prevalent view among business leaders is that President Xi Jinping’s new administration has consolidated its power and acquired enough authority to push through far-reaching economic reforms. He and his colleagues need only to get the specific policies right.

Larry Elliott: China prepares to liberalise finance as hedge funds and estate agents salivate (Guardian)

Analysts at Capital Economics say the third plenum will come up with a direction of travel rather than a detailed policy programme. But they expect the new leadership to address three key issues: the low share of national income going to average households; the dominant role of the state in much of the economy; and the inefficient use of capital.

Willy Lam: SOE links threaten china reform drive (Asia Times)

The recent detention of senior executives of the China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) has highlighted a major question about China’s economic plans: Whether the Xi Jinping-Li Keqiang administration has finally decided to restructure the 110 or so yangqi, or state-owned enterprise (SOE) groupings.

A world to turn upside down (Economist)

Of the economic issues facing November’s plenum of the Chinese Communist Party, none looms larger than land reform in the countryside.

Linda Yueh: What to expect from the Third Plenum? (China Policy Institute)

Will 2013 be another 1978 or at least 1993 for China? Third Plenums held in those years resulted in significant overhauls of economic policy. The Third Plenum refers to the third time that the new leaders of China lead a plenary session of the Central Committee. The current one is being billed as being as significant as the one in December 1978 that marked the start of market-oriented reforms in China over 3 decades ago under Deng Xiaoping. Change of a similarly dramatic nature is unlikely, but there are high expectations that the new Chinese leaders will launch reforms that are as notable as those made in 1993, which dismantled a large part of the state-owned sector.

Barry Naughton: What the Heck is China’s ‘Third Plenum’ and Why Should You Care? (ChinaFile)

Gradually—perhaps over three years—China will liberalize interest rates, open up the renminbi capital account and let the renminbi partially float. However, these important changes are already “baked in” and implementation is in the hands of technocrats who can back off if things get rocky.

Chris Luo: Premier Li Keqiang endorses private entrepreneurs, promises further reforms (South China Morning Post)

Wolfgang Pomrehn: China baut sich um (junge Welt)
Felix Lee: Chinas Wirtschaft hofft auf das Zentralkomitee (Zeit)
Felix Lee: Chinas Märchen von der niedrigen Arbeitslosigkeit (Zeit)

cf. Parasinologie

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