杜建国：十八届三中全会不会有大动作（新浪博客）

“十八届三中全会将会在经济改革方面有大动作”，这是一年来（十八大以来）“自由派”掌控的中国主流媒体和部分国外媒体（如华尔街日报、英国金融时报）的宣传工作的重点。不过相对于这一鼓噪而言，即将于11月召开的三中全会肯定是雷声大、雨点小，不会有大动作出台。
何谓大动作？在笔者看来，媒体所宣扬的大动作，无非是两条：第一，对庞大的国有资产进行重大改革，即私有化；第二，金融改革，包括对外和对内两方面。掠夺资本——即“自由派”资本——企图通过这两项措施将中国高速发展三十多年的成果都装进自己口袋里。笔者认为，在这两个领域，三中全会不会有大动作。先谈谈金融方面。中国政府肯定不会允许资本自由流动，1997年亚洲金融危机的教训历历在目，中国政府岂能重蹈覆辙？国内方面，中国政府今年已经做出了促进私人资本成立银行的决定，这是“自由派”的胜利，不过自由派欲壑难填，还企图有进一步的要求。自由派不仅要求放开私人银行的限制，相反还要求进一步的优惠或特权，比如降低保证金门槛等，这无异于玩火，政府肯定不会予以支持。另一个是放纵非法集资与集资诈骗，即让吴英、曾成杰们为所欲为，对此政府也不会答应。

Minxin Pei: What’s the real test to Xi Jinping and the Communist Party at the Third Plenum? (South China Morning Post)

There is something odd and disturbing about the conventional wisdom surrounding the upcoming Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). As the November 9-12 conclave draws near, the international community’s attention seems to be focused mainly on technocratic policy changes deemed essential to restructuring China’s state-dominated economy and reenergising growth.
Will the government liberalise interest rates or loosen capital controls? How will the fiscal system be revamped? Will land reform be part of the package?
The list of such questions goes on. Outside China, the prevalent view among business leaders is that President Xi Jinping’s new administration has consolidated its power and acquired enough authority to push through far-reaching economic reforms. He and his colleagues need only to get the specific policies right.

Larry Elliott: China prepares to liberalise finance as hedge funds and estate agents salivate (Guardian)

Analysts at Capital Economics say the third plenum will come up with a direction of travel rather than a detailed policy programme. But they expect the new leadership to address three key issues: the low share of national income going to average households; the dominant role of the state in much of the economy; and the inefficient use of capital.

Willy Lam: SOE links threaten china reform drive (Asia Times)

The recent detention of senior executives of the China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) has highlighted a major question about China’s economic plans: Whether the Xi Jinping-Li Keqiang administration has finally decided to restructure the 110 or so yangqi, or state-owned enterprise (SOE) groupings.

A world to turn upside down (Economist)

Of the economic issues facing November’s plenum of the Chinese Communist Party, none looms larger than land reform in the countryside.

Linda Yueh: What to expect from the Third Plenum? (China Policy Institute)

Will 2013 be another 1978 or at least 1993 for China? Third Plenums held in those years resulted in significant overhauls of economic policy. The Third Plenum refers to the third time that the new leaders of China lead a plenary session of the Central Committee. The current one is being billed as being as significant as the one in December 1978 that marked the start of market-oriented reforms in China over 3 decades ago under Deng Xiaoping. Change of a similarly dramatic nature is unlikely, but there are high expectations that the new Chinese leaders will launch reforms that are as notable as those made in 1993, which dismantled a large part of the state-owned sector.

Barry Naughton: What the Heck is China’s ‘Third Plenum’ and Why Should You Care? (ChinaFile)

Gradually—perhaps over three years—China will liberalize interest rates, open up the renminbi capital account and let the renminbi partially float. However, these important changes are already “baked in” and implementation is in the hands of technocrats who can back off if things get rocky.

Chris Luo: Premier Li Keqiang endorses private entrepreneurs, promises further reforms (South China Morning Post)

Wolfgang Pomrehn: China baut sich um (junge Welt)
Felix Lee: Chinas Wirtschaft hofft auf das Zentralkomitee (Zeit)
Felix Lee: Chinas Märchen von der niedrigen Arbeitslosigkeit (Zeit)

cf. Parasinologie